Arizona Voters Want Better Planning For Future Growth; Firm Against Cuts to Core Services

Center for the Future of Arizona (CFA) today unveiled key findings on the views of voters regarding state spending issues as part of its ongoing reveal of the 2024 Arizona Voters’ Agenda. Through nonpartisan survey research of Republican, Democratic, and independent/unaffiliated voters of all ages, the Voters’ Agenda identifies what likely voters agree on and prioritize. The new findings demonstrate voter support for investments in key areas that can support growth, such as transportation infrastructure and childcare assistance. Additionally, voters are firmly against cuts to K-12 education, public safety, and healthcare in efforts to balance the state budget.

“Arizona voters are calling for proactive and strategic preparations for Arizona’s future growth," said Dr. Sybil Francis, Chair, President, & CEO of CFA. "There is a consensus across the political spectrum around topics related to planning and effective spending to support our anticipated growth and maintain a high quality of life.”

In all, 87% of the electorate agrees with the following statement, “Arizona is expected to reach 8 million residents by 2030 and 9 million by 2040. It will take higher levels of planning and preparedness to ensure we have the resources and infrastructure to support that growth and maintain our high quality of life.” This includes support among 84% Republicans, 88% independent/unaffiliated voters, and 89% Democrats.

Enhancing transportation infrastructure is one way to support planning for Arizona's anticipated growth. The statement, backed by 90% of voters, emphasizes this approach: “A robust transportation infrastructure system, including investments in our freeways, streets, and transit throughout the State of Arizona, is critical to moving people, goods, and services throughout the state and essential to our long-term economic success.”

Additionally, 77% of all voters believe Arizona should invest more in childcare assistance programs for qualifying families, highlighting the connection between accessible childcare and growing the workforce engagement and success of Arizona families. This finding aligns with previous surveys conducted by CFA, which found that a significant portion of Arizonans reported being hindered in pursuing further education or returning to work due to the lack of affordable childcare.

"Arizona voters are signaling support for investments needed to support Arizona’s growth. This is underscored by strong consensus against cuts to education, public safety, and healthcare, which are also crucial for supporting Arizona’s expanding population and economic development,” said Paul Bentz, Senior Vice President of Research & Strategy at HighGround, who conducted the survey on behalf of CFA.

In the face of the state's budget deficit, voters made clear that they are resoundingly opposed to cutting funding for K-12 education (87%), public safety (82%), and healthcare (81%). These results underline a preference for preserving core services, even with fiscal pressures.

“The challenges ahead require strong leadership and a willingness among Arizona's leaders and candidates for office to work across party lines, a priority that aligns with two-thirds of voters who seek such collaboration,” Dr. Francis emphasized. “There’s a desire to ensure that growth does not come at the expense of an educated, safe, and healthy community. The task is to explore all viable solutions and find ways to fund critical services without compromising Arizona’s long-term growth and quality of life.”

The 2024 Arizona Voters' Agenda prompts leaders and candidates to consider how they will align decisions with the public’s priorities. Regarding state spending, the Voters’ Agenda points to crucial questions for moderators, members of the press, community leaders, and voters to ask candidates as they compete for votes, including “Arizona must have a balanced budget. Voters want to invest in infrastructure and childcare programs without cutting education, healthcare, or public safety. What do you think the state should do about the projected deficit?”

"Candidates and leaders should seize this opportunity to focus on and address the shared priorities outlined in our research, as it can help align political discourse with the majority of the electorate and strengthen confidence in Arizona’s future in the process," concluded Dr. Francis.

To be included on the Arizona Voters’ Agenda, a majority of all likely voters must show a “strong” level of agreement on the issue, and majorities of every political and age segment must show “strong” or “somewhat strong” agreement on the issue. This ensures the Voters’ Agenda truly reflects majority support across all political and generational lines at 50% or above.

Get all findings and more questions for candidates at arizonafuture.org/ava.

The rollout of the 2024 Arizona Voters' Agenda will continue through May 15. Findings on immigration and housing will be released next week.

About the Arizona Voters’ Agenda Survey
The first of two planned Arizona Voters’ Agenda surveys ahead of the 2024 election was conducted on March 4-11, 2024, with a random sample of 500 people. The poll surveyed likely Arizona 2024 General Election voters with a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender. The live interview surveys of voters were conducted in English and Spanish by HighGround, Inc. to landline and cell phone users. The partisan advantage was set at +4% GOP based on previous election trends. The margin of error is ±4.3%.

CFA analyzed the statewide survey data to determine which issues make the cut for the Arizona Voters’ Agenda. To ensure a high threshold of agreement, issues meet all the following criteria:

1. Strong agreement is 50% and above among All Likely Voters
   AND
2. Total agreement (i.e., the sum of somewhat and strong agreement) is 50% and above among every political affiliation (Republican, independent/unaffiliated, and Democratic) and age group (20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-64, 65+) of voters surveyed.

Visit arizonafuture.org/ava for more details on the initiative and comprehensive survey information.

The Arizona Voters’ Agenda – State Spending

* Political and age group breakdowns are available at arizonafuture.org/ava.

** The Arizona Voters’ Agenda identifies key areas where voters across all subgroups consistently align. While most items reflect widespread support for topics, it is important to note that one specific item stands out for its strong consensus in opposition to specific proposed spending cuts.

Survey Demographics:

The 2024 Arizona Voters’ Agenda initiative is supported in part by Helios Education Foundation, Pivotal Foundation, Southern Arizona Leadership Council, and Thomas R. Brown Family Private Foundation.

About Center for the Future of Arizona
Center for the Future of Arizona (CFA) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan "do-tank" that brings Arizonans together to create a stronger and brighter future for our state. Through its survey research & communications, Arizona Progress Meters, and impact initiatives & programs in education, workforce, and civic health, CFA listens to Arizonans to learn what matters most to them, shares trusted data about how Arizona is doing in those priority areas, brings critical issues to public attention, and works with communities and leaders to solve public problems. CFA’s work is focused on building The Arizona We Want –a research-informed vision of success for the state, where all Arizonans, now and in the future, thrive and enjoy sustained prosperity, unmatched quality of life, and real opportunity.

CFA develops the Arizona Voters’ Agenda initiative to put the voices of Arizona voters at the forefront of election dialogue, encourage candidates and media to focus on what Arizonans agree on and care about for our state, and increase voter engagement by building a positive agenda that focuses on outcomes that voters across age and political affiliation want.